GEOPOLITICAL CONFRONTATION IN THE ARCTIC
Abstract
This article is dedicated to the study of the current geopolitical order in the Arctic, the relations between Arctic states, and the processes of geopolitical confrontation in the region. The natural resource potential of the Arctic region is increasingly significant in the global economy. With climate change, the importance of transportation routes in the Arctic Ocean is growing. At the beginning of the 21st century, circumpolar states began to assert claims to expand the boundaries of their continental shelves. Competition among Arctic states for control over strategic natural resources and prospective transportation routes is intensifying. Regional institutions for international cooperation, particularly the Arctic Council, lack sufficiently effective means to protect regional security, ensure an effective regional regime, and address pressing issues. Russia's geostrategy in the Arctic is aimed at expanding its geopolitical space, increasing up its military capabilities, economic development of Arctic territories, and securing sole exploitation of the Northern Sea Route. China is interested in implementing the ‘Polar Silk Road’ project and seeks to enhance its role in the economic development of the Arctic. Relations between the RF and other Arctic states sharply deteriorated following Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2022. NATO states are boosting their military capabilities in the Arctic region and are jointly implementing a geostrategy of ‘deterrence’ against Russia. NATO's geostrategic positions in the region have significantly strengthened as a result of Finland and Sweden joining the Alliance. Western states are capable of intensifying regional cooperation in political, economic, legal, and other spheres. The contemporary geopolitical order in the Arctic is most accurately reflected in a confrontational model. Geopolitical rivalry and the militarization of the Arctic have led to the disruption of the regional regime.
References
Coilan, I. (2022). The EU’s geopolitical awakening in the Arctic. European Policy Centre [in English]. [Coilan I. The EU’s geopolitical awakening in the Arctic. European Policy Centre. 2022. Retrieved from https://www.epc.eu/en/Publications/The-EUs-geopolitical-awakening-in-the-Arctic~47c318]
Exner-Pirot, H., & Murray, R. W. (2017). Regional order in the Arctic: Negotiated exceptionalism. Politik, 20(3), 47–64 [in English]. [Exner-Pirot H., Murray R. W. Regional order in the Arctic: Negotiated exceptionalism. Politik. 2017. Årg. 20, Nr. 3. P. 47–64]
Folland, M. (2022). Arctic Strategy: Deterrence and Détente. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press [in English]. [Folland M. Arctic Strategy: Deterrence and Détente. Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press. 2022. Retrieved from https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3173373/arctic-strategy-deterrence-and-dtente/]
Goltsov, А. (2018). Geopolitical Dimension of the Strategy of the Russian Federation in the post-Soviet space. Kyiv: CEL. [in Ukrainian]. [Гольцов А. Г. Геополітичний вимір стратегії Російської Федерації на пострадянському просторі. Київ : ЦУЛ, 2018. 392 c.]
Grieger, G. (2018). China's Arctic policy. How China aligns rights and interests. European Parliamentary Research Service [in English]. [Grieger G. China's Arctic policy. How China aligns rights and interests. European Parliamentary Research Service. 2018. Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2018/620231/EPRS_BRI(2018)620231_EN.pdf]
Heininen, L. (2018). Arctic Geopolitics from classical to critical approach – importance of immaterial factors. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 11(1), 171–186 [in English]. [Heininen L. Arctic Geopolitics from classical to critical approach – importance of immaterial factors. Geography, Environment, Sustainability. 2018. Vol. 11, No. 1. P. 171–186]
Kavanagh, E. (2024). Arctic governance: An analysis of a treaty-based cooperation hypothesis. Spanish Yearbook of International Law, 27, 257–266 [in English]. [Kavanagh E. Arctic governance: An analysis of a treaty-based cooperation hypothesis. Spanish Yearbook of International Law. 2024. Issue 27. P. 257–266]
Keshri, N. (2018). The Arctic region: geopolitical and geostrategic study. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 8(6), 131–148 [in English]. [Keshri N. The Arctic region: geopolitical and geostrategic study. ZENITH International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research. 2018. Vol. 8, Issue 6. P. 131–148]
Koivurova, T., & Shibata, A. (2023). After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Can we still cooperate with Russia in the Arctic? Polar Record, 59, 1–9 [in English]. [Koivurova T., Shibata A. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Can we still cooperate with Russia in the Arctic?. 2023. Polar Record. Vol. 59. P. 1–9]
National Strategy for the Arctic Region. 2022. The White House. Washington, D.C. October 12 [in English]. [National Strategy for the Arctic Region. The White House. Washington, D.C. 2022. October 12. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdf]
NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. NATO. [in English]. [NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. NATO. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf]
Østhagen, A., Svendsen, O., & Bergmann, M. (2023). Arctic Geopolitics: The Svalbard Archipelago. CSIS [in English]. [Østhagen A., Svendsen O., Bergmann M. Arctic Geopolitics: The Svalbard Archipelago. CSIS. 2023. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/analysis/arctic-geopolitics-svalbard-archipelago]
Steinveg, B., Rottem, S. V., & Andreeva, S. (2024). Soft institutions in Arctic governance – who does what? Polar Record, 60, 1–7 [in English]. [Steinveg B., Rottem S. V., Andreeva S. Soft institutions in Arctic governance – who does what?. Polar Record. 2024. Vol. 60. P. 1–7]
Yashna, N. (2015). International legal regime of the Arctic in conditions of geopolitical rivalry of countries in this region. Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk University, 4, 61–65 [in Ukrainian]. [Яшна Н. Міжнародно-правовий режим Арктики в умовах геополітичного суперництва країн у даному регіоні. Вісник Дніпропетровського університету. 2015. № 4. С. 61–65]
Young, O. (2012). Building an international regime complex for the Arctic: current status and next steps. The Polar Journal, 2(2), 391–407 [in English]. [Young, O. Building an international regime complex for the Arctic: current status and next steps. The Polar Journal. 2012. Vol. 2, No. 2. P. 391–407]
Zamikula, M. (2016). Militarization of the Arctic as a problem of international security. Analytical note. NISS [in Ukrainian]. [Замікула М. Мілітаризація Арктики як проблема міжнародної безпеки. Аналітична записка. НІСД. 2016. Retrieved from https://niss.gov.ua/sites/default/files/2016-12/militar_Arktuku-4c34d.pdf]
