РОСІЙСЬКА ЯДЕРНА ДИПЛОМАТІЯ У ВІЙНІ ПРОТИ УКРАЇНИ: ВИПРОБУВАННЯ ПРАКТИКОЮ
Ключові слова:
дипломатія, ядерна стримування, примус, ескалація, переконливість, війна, Україна, США, Росія
Анотація
Рано-вранці 24 лютого 2022 року жорстокий напад Росії на Україну супроводжувався публічним телевізійним виступом президента В. Путіна, який рішуче застеріг Захід від втручання у «спеціальну воєнну операцію» Росії проти України. Чіткий натяк на можливість застосування ядерної зброї визначив усю військову кампанію Москви проти України. Відтоді «ядерний козир» з’являвся в російській офіційній та медійній риториці майже щомісяця, пропонуючи нову «червону лінію», яку Москва проводила для Заходу. Все, від нещодавно анексованих територій до поставок зброї Україні, оголошувалося Москвою як casus belli та навіть як можливість ядерної війни. Однак перший рік війни Росії проти України показав чіткі обмеження російської стратегії ядерного стримування. Багато спершу намальованих російських «червоних ліній» виявилися хибними, а їх поступове зміщення Заходом та Україною не спричинило подальшої ескалації. Навпаки, помноження ядерних сигналів призвело до зменшення довіри та, зрештою, до зниження граничної корисності російських ядерних загроз. Загалом, можна спостерігати поступове виснаження ядерної могутності як одну з рис, закладених у російську стратегію стримування. Останнє, своєю чергою, накладає певні обмеження на корисність ядерного стримування як універсально- го політичного інструменту. Тож гіпотеза дослідження полягає в тому, що ядерне стримування не можна розглядати як універсальну політичну стратегію, яка дає змогу державам максимізувати свої зовнішньополітичні цілі. Ця стаття має на меті визначити особливості російської ядерної дипломатії у війні Росії проти України в її декларативному та практичному зрізі. Ураховуючи комплексний характер поставленої мети, автори застосовують три основні методологічні підходи: порівняльний аналіз поведінці Росії та США крізь призму їхніх стратегій стримування, контент-аналіз промов російських та американських посадовців і теорія стримування. Вивчаючи особливості російської стратегії стримування та ескалації, у статті розглядаються етапи застосування Кремлем стримування та примусу щодо України, США та західних держав, визначається їх ефективність та чинники, які впливають на динаміку появ загроз щодо застосування ядерної зброї з боку Росії. У висновках констатується, що у війні проти України ефективність російського стримування для гарантування «червоних ліній» є обмеженою, а головним інструментом впливу та примусу є загроза ядерної ескалації.
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Опубліковано
2025-11-10
Як цитувати
Сіновець, П. А., & Максименко, І. В. (2025). РОСІЙСЬКА ЯДЕРНА ДИПЛОМАТІЯ У ВІЙНІ ПРОТИ УКРАЇНИ: ВИПРОБУВАННЯ ПРАКТИКОЮ. Міжнародні та політичні дослідження, (40), 253-275. https://doi.org/10.32782/2707-5206.2025.40.21
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МІЖНАРОДНИЙ ВИМІР ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЙНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ
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