INTEGRATION OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES INTO POLITICAL FORECASTING: METHODOLOGICAL PRINCIPLES AND PROSPECTS

Abstract

During the period of military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine and political crises in the world, the problem of the reliability of political information acquires particular importance. The lack of verified sources and the abundance of con- tradictory messages create the threat of forming erroneous conclusions. This can distort public sentiment, influence elites and complicate decision-making. In the digital age, political researchers are faced with huge flows of data that are difficult to systematize and analyze. Information often arrives in a distorted form under the influence of ideo- logical or propaganda factors, which makes it impossible to adequately assess events.The article justifies the need to improve political forecasting as a tool of science and practice. Political science should not only explain processes, but also form forecasts based on evidence and scientific methods, and not only on expert judgments. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating the latest technologies into the process of polit- ical analysis. This primarily concerns the use of big data, machine learning algorithms, open source analysis, as well as monitoring systems for socio-political processes. The use of these tools can increase the accuracy of forecasts and reduce the level of uncertainty in conditions of dynamic changes.The work proves that a complex combination of classical methods of political science and modern technological solutions creates the prerequisites for obtaining objective results.Such an approach allows minimizing the risks of erroneous conclusions, which can have a significant impact on state policy and security. The article emphasizes the need for systematic development of political forecasting, which is able to adapt to new challenges of a globalized and crisis environment.